Summary:
- A wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms is affecting the UK, with forecasts warning of nearly half a month’s rainfall in just 24 hours.
- The Met Office issued multiple weather warnings, including an amber alert in southeast England, due to a low-pressure system.
- Forecasts indicate 40–60 mm of rainfall in locations such as London, Essex, Kent, and East Sussex.
- Regions including northeast England, north Wales, southern Scotland, and eastern Northern Ireland are already experiencing flash flooding and heavy showers.
- Potential travel disruptions and localised flooding of homes and businesses have been warned.
- Unsettled weather is expected to persist into early week, with gradual improvements midweek—though forecasts remain uncertain.
A powerful wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms is sweeping across the United Kingdom, with forecasters warning that some areas could see nearly half a month’s worth of rainfall in just 24 hours. The Met Office has issued multiple weather warnings, including an amber alert for parts of southeast England, as warm, humid air interacts with a slow-moving low-pressure system, creating ideal conditions for intense and persistent downpours.
“Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread through Sunday into early Monday,” the Met Office stated, highlighting areas of greatest concern, including London, Essex, Kent, and East Sussex. Forecasters warn that rainfall totals could reach between 40 and 60 millimetres in isolated spots, with the bulk of that falling within a single hour.
Elsewhere, regions such as northeast England and north Wales have already begun to experience heavy showers and flash flooding, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Further north, a band of persistent rain is affecting parts of southern Scotland and eastern Northern Ireland. According to the Met Office‘s latest advisory, these areas could see “very heavy rain overnight,” with accumulations building steadily into Monday morning.
The meteorological dynamics behind the extreme conditions are closely tied to a low-pressure system stalled over the UK, drawing in warm and moisture-laden air from the south. “When you combine slow-moving storm systems with that kind of heat and humidity, you get very intense rainfall rates,” said a Met Office spokesperson. “This not only increases the risk of surface water flooding but can make accurate local forecasting especially difficult.”
The agency warned of possible travel disruption due to water on the roads, with delays likely on both rail and bus services, particularly during peak commuting hours. Localised flooding of homes and businesses is also considered likely in areas hardest hit by the thunderstorms.
Residents have been advised to keep aware of changing weather conditions, particularly where flood alerts may be issued with little warning. In areas under the amber warning, which is in effect until the early hours of Monday, the public is encouraged to consider changing travel plans and to ensure that drainage systems around properties are clear.
Looking ahead, meteorologists expect the unsettled weather to continue into the early part of the week. While lightning activity may ease, further bands of rain are forecast to develop across southern and central parts of the country. Conditions are expected to improve gradually midweek, but the Met Office cautions that thunderstorm forecasting remains inherently uncertain and subject to rapid changes.
“This type of summer pattern, especially with continental airflows, tends to bring intense but highly regional rainfall,” the Met Office noted in a blog post. “It’s not just how much rain falls, but how quickly it arrives and how long it lingers in one place that determines the severity of the impact.”
For now, emergency services and local councils remain on alert, monitoring flood levels and preparing for potential callouts. As of Monday morning, no serious incidents or injuries have been reported, but authorities continue to urge vigilance as the situation develops.
Background:
Here is how this event developed over time:
- July 3, 2024 – The UK Met Office began tracking a developing low-pressure system bringing warm, humid air, setting up conditions for severe weather.
- July 4, 2024 – Forecasters warned of potential intense thunderstorms due to persistent instability in the atmosphere.
- July 5, 2024 (early morning) – Initial bands of showers started moving northward across the UK, signaling the beginning of the weather event.
- July 5, 2024 (midday) – An amber thunderstorm warning was issued for southeast England, where rainfall rates of 15–25 mm per hour were expected, with local totals up to 60 mm.
- July 5, 2024 (afternoon) – The heaviest conditions were projected to hit northeast England and northern Wales by mid-afternoon.
- July 5, 2024 (overnight forecast) – Met Office projected very heavy rain to affect northern England, southern Scotland, and eastern Northern Ireland overnight.
- July 6, 2024 (outlook) – Further rain was forecast to arrive from the southwest, continuing the unsettled pattern.