Summary:
- A Guardian analysis warns that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could lead to millions of deaths annually and impose a $2 trillion yearly economic burden by mid-century.
- Drug-resistant infections may become a leading cause of death globally by 2050, potentially surpassing cancer, with estimated mortality reaching 10-11 million deaths per year without significant intervention.
- The report coincides with the UK government’s decision to shut down the Fleming Fund, a global health program supporting AMR monitoring, which experts warn could undermine vital surveillance efforts.
- Ondine Biomedical highlights the importance of consistent investment in AMR surveillance and prevention, criticizing the shutdown of the Fleming Fund.
- Intensive agriculture and industrial pollution are noted as significant contributors to resistance, with practices like antibiotic use in livestock and unregulated pharmaceutical wastewater identified as persistent issues.
- The report emphasizes urgent international collaboration to combat AMR, focusing on both the human and economic impacts of continued inaction.
A new analysis published by The Guardian on 20 July 2025 has cast a stark light on the potential global impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), warning that “superbugs” could claim millions of lives annually and impose a $2 trillion yearly burden on the world economy by mid-century. The article cites economic models developed by the Center for Global Development, which forecast an escalating crisis unless international efforts to counteract resistant infections intensify.
According to the findings, drug-resistant infections could become one of the leading causes of death globally by 2050, rivaling or even surpassing cancer. The models suggest mortality due to AMR may reach between 10 and 11 million deaths per year without significant intervention—figures consistent with prior estimates but now accompanied by updated economic projections. These new calculations depict an acute financial strain, with a yearly economic toll of up to $2 trillion, primarily driven by increased healthcare costs, productivity losses, and disrupted global trade.
Speaking in response to the projections, researchers at the Center for Global Development emphasized the unique breadth of the threat. “Unlike other health crises, AMR does not respect borders, and its economic impact will be deeply felt in both high-income and lower-income settings,” stated one of the model’s lead authors. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the broader European Union are among the regions expected to face the steepest healthcare costs as resistance renders current treatments increasingly ineffective.
Compounding concerns about preparedness, the report’s publication coincided with news that the UK government had decided to shut down the Fleming Fund, a global health program supporting AMR monitoring in low- and middle-income countries. Experts warn this move risks undermining vital surveillance infrastructure at a time when coordinated global tracking and data sharing are crucial.
Ondine Biomedical, a company involved in developing photodisinfection technologies as a potential remedy to certain resistant infections, issued a statement following the announcement, characterizing the decision as “deeply concerning.” A spokesperson from the company remarked, “Without consistent investment in surveillance and prevention, we are fighting this crisis blindfolded.”
The Fleming Fund, launched in 2015, had provided technical assistance and financial support to over 20 countries working to improve AMR diagnostics and data usage. The abrupt termination has drawn concern from health analysts who fear it signals a scaling back of broader international commitments to address superbugs.
Beyond healthcare infrastructure, experts continue to highlight the role of intensive agriculture and industrial pollution in driving resistance. Studies note that in the U.S., around 80% of antibiotics are administered to livestock—often as growth promoters—while wastewater from pharmaceutical production remains a largely unregulated contributor to environmental reservoirs of resistance. Although some restrictions have been introduced in Europe and elsewhere, these practices persist in many parts of the world.
Infectious disease specialists stress that while the threat of drug-resistant bacteria is not new, the clarity of its projected consequences is. “We’re at a point where we can no longer say this is a distant or abstract issue,” one epidemiologist noted. “These models give a face to what inaction looks like.”
Background:
Here is how this event developed over time:
- September 2024 – A study in The Lancet projects 39 million deaths from antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by 2050 and estimates that 92 million lives could be saved with better access to antibiotics and infection care.
- November 2024 – Ondine Biomedical raises £11.3 million to support Phase 3 clinical trials of its nasal photodisinfection therapy targeting drug-resistant pathogens.
- May 2025 – Research finds that fewer than 7% of serious drug-resistant infections in low-income countries are treated with effective antibiotics, highlighting stark access inequalities fueling AMR.
- July 15, 2025 – AMR Policy Accelerator updates projections showing AMR could cause 10 million deaths annually and $100 trillion in cumulative global economic losses by 2050.
- July 18, 2025 – Experts from the Center for Global Development (CGD) present models estimating the annual economic cost of AMR could reach $2 trillion by 2050.
- July 20, 2025 – The Guardian publishes findings from CGD models warning that AMR could kill millions annually and incur $2 trillion in global economic damage each year by 2050.
- July 21, 2025 – The UK government announces it is cancelling the Fleming Fund, an international program supporting AMR surveillance in low- and middle-income countries.