The Tasmanian state election held on July 19 has delivered a vote with no clear winner, plunging the island state into a period of political uncertainty as counting continues and party leaders begin early deliberations over future governance.

With 63.5% of the ballots tallied, the Liberal Party, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, is ahead with 39.96% of the primary vote and 14 seats in the 35-seat House of Assembly. However, that leaves the party four seats short of the 18 required for an outright majority. The Labor Party trails with 26.10% of the vote and has secured nine seats. The Greens, maintaining consistent support, have captured five seats on a 13.90% vote share. Independents currently hold three seats, while another four seats remain in doubt as Tasmanian Electoral Commission staff continue the count across the state’s five multi-member divisions.

“There’s no denying the numbers are tight,” Premier Rockliff said on Monday afternoon. “We’ll await the final count, but we remain committed to delivering stable governance and will work with all elected representatives in the interests of Tasmanians.” His comments signal the prospect of negotiations with crossbench MPs and newly elected independents in the event of a hung parliament—an outcome looking increasingly likely.

Among those independents are several fresh faces in Tasmanian politics, including Peter George, who appears to have narrowly taken a seat in Franklin, traditionally a battleground between Labor and Liberal candidates. George, who ran on a local accountability platform, is one of three independents provisionally elected. In Lyons, Carlo Di Falco of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party has been declared elected, marking his party’s first significant breakthrough in the state.

Bridget Archer, previously a federal Liberal MP, has returned to state politics, claiming a seat in Bass. Her win came at the expense of Rebekah Pentland, a former member of the Jacqui Lambie Network who later resigned and contested the election as an independent. The divisions of Clark and Lyons continue to hold the most uncertainty, with several seats yet to be finalized.

Gavin Pearce, another former federal Liberal MP, has secured a position in Braddon, replacing Miriam Beswick, a one-time member of the Lambie Network who defected to the Nationals. Labor’s Brian Mitchell is expected to enter parliament from Lyons, likely replacing Casey Farrell, although preference flows still leave some uncertainty in that contest.

This year’s election was the first held under Tasmania’s expanded parliamentary framework, following the 2022 reforms that increased the size of the House from 25 to 35 members. The change, aimed at improving representation and easing governance pressures, has also reshaped the political landscape, dispersing voting power more widely among smaller parties and independents.

“The enlarged Assembly has made it harder for the major parties to gain a clear majority,” election analyst Antony Green observed during preliminary coverage. “But it also means voters’ preferences are more directly reflected in the parliamentary makeup.”

At the federal level, the outcome has drawn attention in Opposition ranks, as the result coincides with new national polling suggesting a comfortable lead for the federal Labor government. Though state and federal contests differ significantly, analysts note the difficulties faced by Tasmania’s Liberals may add to strategic recalibrations ahead of the next national election cycle.