Summary:
- Tasmania faces a hung parliament following the 2025 state election, prompting political negotiations and potential coalition talks.
- The Liberal Party leads with 14 seats and nearly 40% of the votes, while Labor has 9 seats, the Greens hold 5, and Independents command 3 seats.
- Four seats remain undecided, leaving control of the 35-seat House uncertain.
- New members include Carlo Di Falco and former journalist Peter George.
- Pre-election polling suggested a likely hung parliament, with more support for Dean Winter over Jeremy Rockliff.
- Early signs hint at a possible Labor-Green coalition as negotiations continue.
Tasmania appears headed for a period of political negotiation and possible coalition-building after the 2025 state election delivered no clear majority winner. With just over 63% of the vote counted, the result points to a hung parliament — a development largely in line with public expectations as indicated in pre-election polling.
As of the latest count, the Liberal Party leads the race with 14 seats secured and 39.96% of the popular vote. Labor trails with 9 seats and 26.10%, followed by the Greens who have captured 13.90% of the vote and 5 seats. Independents collectively hold 3 seats, supported by a notable 15.30% of statewide votes. Four seats remain undecided, making the final composition of the 35-seat House still uncertain.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals have seen a reduction in their parliamentary presence, while the growing influence of smaller parties and independent candidates is reshaping the state’s political map. Carlo Di Falco, representing the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, is among the new faces to gain a seat in the Lyons electorate. Another notable addition is journalist-turned-politician Peter George, who appears set to enter parliament as an Independent in Franklin. Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Bridget Archer is poised for a return to state politics, leading in the Bass count.
The election outcome had been broadly anticipated. A YouGov poll conducted shortly before election day suggested a gridlocked result, with many voters expressing dissatisfaction with both major parties. In a hypothetical scenario of a hung parliament, 55% of respondents indicated a preference for Labor leader Dean Winter as Tasmania’s next Premier, compared to 45% for Rockliff. On a forced-choice basis, Winter held a 10-point edge.
Election analyst Antony Green noted during behind-the-scenes commentary that early trends were consistent with polls showing a surge in support for minor parties. “There’s a clear shift,” he said. “Voters are sending a message: they want more voices in parliament.”
The final stages of the count could yet influence coalition dynamics. With four seats unresolved, the balance of power remains fluid. However, early signs suggest a possible collaboration between Labor and the Greens, a combination that would still fall short of an outright majority but may allow for the establishment of a minority government.
As parties begin post-election negotiations, voters and observers alike await clarity on what shape the next Tasmanian government will take. The Electoral Commission has not provided a specific date for the final declaration, but officials expect further updates in the coming days as counting continues.
Background:
Here is how this event developed over time:
- 19 July 2025: The Tasmanian state election was held to decide the composition of the state’s House of Assembly.
- Pre-election period: A YouGov poll predicted a likely hung parliament, with 55% of voters preferring Labor leader Dean Winter as Premier in that event.
- Election night, 19 July 2025: Sky News Australia began coverage of early results, with election analyst Antony Green involved behind the scenes.
- Post-election, 19–20 July 2025: Early results showed the Liberal Party leading with 39.96% of the vote and 14 seats, followed by Labor with 26.10% and 9 seats, Greens with 13.90% and 5 seats, and Independents with 15.30% and 3 seats; four seats remained undecided.
- 20 July 2025: Voter trends revealed record 39% support for minor parties and independents, indicating growing dissatisfaction with major parties.
- 20 July 2025: Final polls closely matched results, with Liberals at 31%, Labor at 30%, and Greens at 16%; Dean Winter held a 10-point lead over incumbent Premier Jeremy Rockliff in preferred leadership polls.
- 21 July 2025: Newly elected MPs included Bridget Archer (Liberal, Bass), Peter George (Independent, Franklin), and Carlo Di Falco (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Lyons).
- 21 July 2025: Coalition negotiations began amid the confirmed hung parliament, with Labor and Greens seen as potential partners to form government.