Summary:
- Tasmania’s state election results in a hung parliament, with no single party achieving a majority in the 35-seat House of Assembly.
- The Liberal Party, led by Jeremy Rockliff, leads with 14 seats; Labor secures 9 seats.
- The Greens win 5 seats, and independents secure 3; 4 seats remain undecided under the Hare-Clark electoral system.
- Both major parties prepare for negotiations with independents and minor parties to form government.
- Independent candidates Bridget Archer and Peter George achieve prominent wins.
- Analysts highlight Tasmania’s shift toward mixed representation, reflecting national trends in voter sentiment.
Tasmania is on course for a second consecutive hung parliament after Saturday’s state election delivered no clear winner, with the Liberal Party securing the largest number of seats but falling short of a majority in the 35-member House of Assembly.
According to preliminary figures released by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission as of Monday morning, the Liberal Party, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, captured 39.96% of the vote, translating to 14 seats. The Labor Party, under Dean Winter, won 9 seats from 26.10% of the statewide vote. The Greens increased their presence to 5 seats with 13.90%, while independent candidates collectively secured 3 seats on about 15.3% of the vote. Four seats remain in doubt as counting continues under the state’s complex Hare-Clark electoral system.
The outcome aligns closely with pre-election expectations, following months of polling that pointed to a fractured result. A final YouGov survey released on the eve of the election projected a near tie between the major parties and a surge in support for minor parties and independents. That poll placed the Liberals at 31% and Labor at 30%, with independents and smaller parties commanding a combined 39%—a record high in Tasmania’s electoral history.
“The numbers clearly show that the people of Tasmania have again chosen a mixed parliament, and that’s their democratic right,” Premier Rockliff said in a statement late Sunday. “We will continue to engage constructively with all elected members to ensure stability for the state.”
Labor leader Dean Winter, speaking to supporters at a post-election gathering in Hobart, struck a similarly cautious note. “This result confirms what Tasmanians told us throughout the campaign: they want a different kind of politics,” he said. “We await the final count, but we are prepared to talk to others about how we move forward.”
Among the high-profile results already clear, Liberal MP Bridget Archer claimed a seat in the Bass electorate, positioning herself as a potential key figure in any negotiations. In Franklin, Peter George, a well-known local journalist turned independent candidate, defeated a Liberal incumbent, highlighting the strength of local campaigns and personal recognition.
Notably, the Greens delivered a strong performance across their traditional strongholds, with party leader Rosalie Woodruff easily re-elected in Franklin. Speaking at a press conference on Sunday, Woodruff emphasized the growing appetite for environmental action among Tasmanian voters.
The final composition of the 49th Tasmanian Parliament hinges on the outcome of the remaining undecided seats, concentrated in the electorates of Clark and Lyons. The Hare-Clark system, based on proportional representation with multi-member electorates, often extends the counting process for days or even weeks after election day.
Background:
Here is how this event developed over time:
- July 18, 2025: A YouGov poll ahead of the Tasmanian election showed Labor narrowly leading the Liberals 55–45 on a two-party preferred basis, with 31% primary support for Liberals, 30% for Labor, 16% for Greens, and 39% for minor parties and independents.
- July 18, 2025: The same poll found that 55% of voters preferred Labor leader Dean Winter as premier in the event of a hung parliament.
- July 19, 2025: Tasmania held its state election, with expanded representation increasing the House of Assembly to 35 seats.
- July 21, 2025: With 63.5% of the vote counted, the results showed Liberals with 14 seats (39.96%), Labor with 9 (26.10%), Greens with 5 (13.90%), and independents with 3 (15.30%), while 4 seats remained undecided.
- July 21, 2025: Independents Bridget Archer and Peter George secured seats in Bass and Franklin respectively, contributing to the crossbench’s growing influence.
- July 21, 2025: Premier Jeremy Rockliff declared victory for the Liberal Party and announced plans to form a minority government.
- July 21, 2025: Labor leader Dean Winter initiated talks with independents but ruled out any formal cooperation with the Greens.
- July 21, 2025: The Tasmanian Electoral Commission continued vote counting, with the final results expected in the coming days.