Japan’s ruling coalition has lost its majority in the Upper House of parliament, marking a significant political setback for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba just nine months into his tenure. Early results from the July 20 election, backed by exit polls, show that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito failed to secure the 56 seats needed for a controlling majority in the 248-seat chamber. The loss could trigger a political deadlock — or even prompt Ishiba’s resignation.

• Shigeru Ishiba
• Liberal Democratic Party
• Komeito

Voter dissatisfaction over economic conditions appeared to be a central factor. With inflation continuing to strain household budgets, and wages unable to keep pace with rising costs, many voters said they were looking for alternatives to the ruling bloc. These sentiments were particularly strong among younger demographics, with voters in their twenties and thirties showing growing support for opposition parties that promised tangible improvements in living standards.

“The cost of groceries, utilities — everything keeps rising, but our salaries don’t,” said 29-year-old office worker Aya Matsuda outside a polling station in Osaka. “We’ve had enough talk. We want action that changes something.”

Exit polls conducted by NHK indicated that nearly half of voters identified price hikes and economic concerns as their top issues. Other persistent problems such as the declining birth rate and social security were cited far less frequently. Analysts say the economy — rather than foreign policy or national security — ultimately shaped the vote.

• NHK

The ruling coalition’s loss comes on the heels of its earlier defeat in last October’s Lower House elections, compounding concerns within the LDP about public trust and political direction. The two consecutive results appear to reflect mounting frustration with leadership under Ishiba, who replaced long-serving prime minister Fumio Kishida in late 2024 after internal party maneuvering.

• LDP
• Shigeru Ishiba
• Fumio Kishida

According to political observers, the election results open a path to several possible outcomes. The government may attempt to forge temporary alliances with opposition groups in order to pass key legislation, potentially diluting its policy agenda. Alternatively, pressure could build within the LDP to seek new leadership — a scenario that some party insiders have publicly suggested.

• LDP

“This is a moment of reckoning for the prime minister,” said Eiko Tanaka, a professor of political science at Keio University. “His ability to manage coalition dynamics and respond to voter concerns will be tested more than ever.”

• Keio University

Opposition parties were quick to capitalize on the ruling camp’s vulnerability. The Democratic Party for the People, as well as the smaller but surging Sanseito, both gained seats and increased their national profile. Their platforms — which included promises to boost take-home pay and introduce more transparent fiscal policies — appear to have resonated with a segment of the population often overlooked in traditional political discourse.

• Democratic Party for the People
• Sanseito

“We listened to the people and offered solutions that matter,” said Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki during a televised address. “This is only the beginning of a broader movement to hold power accountable.”

• Yuichiro Tamaki

The emergence of these parties also reflects a shifting political landscape in Japan, where traditional party loyalties have weakened and younger voters are expressing a stronger appetite for change. While the opposition still lacks a unified front, their gains mark a new phase of competitiveness in parliamentary politics.

For now, all eyes are on Prime Minister Ishiba, who has yet to make a definitive statement about his political future. In brief remarks delivered shortly after the results, he acknowledged the coalition’s setback and pledged to “listen humbly to the voice of the people.”

• Shigeru Ishiba

Whether that voice leads to policy recalibration, new political alignments, or a change at the top remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Japan’s political status quo has been deeply shaken — and the reverberations may only just be beginning.